{
  "$schema": "https://invest-like.com/data/schemas/cohort-returns.v1.json",
  "dataset": "cohort-returns-by-grade",
  "description": "Snapshot of median cohort returns broken down by Buffett-Fit letter grade at entry, over 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year windows. Computed against locked entry timestamps, no rebalancing, including realised failures (no survivorship adjustment in the cohort definition itself).",
  "lastModified": "2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "source": {
    "name": "invest-like.com",
    "url": "https://invest-like.com/track-record/",
    "methodology": "https://invest-like.com/methodology/buffett-fit/",
    "benchmarks": "https://invest-like.com/benchmarks/",
    "paper": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20393518"
  },
  "license": {
    "name": "Free for read-only use with attribution",
    "url": "https://invest-like.com/papers/",
    "citation": "When citing, attribute to 'invest-like.com cohort returns by grade' and link the track-record URL above."
  },
  "benchmark": {
    "name": "SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)",
    "return_1y_pct": 12.4,
    "return_3y_pct": 38.2,
    "return_5y_pct": 80.8
  },
  "count": 5,
  "data": [
    {
      "grade": "A+",
      "score_range": "85-100",
      "cohort_size": 18,
      "median_return_1y_pct": 28.7,
      "median_return_3y_pct": 84.2,
      "median_return_5y_pct": 178.3,
      "alpha_5y_pp": 97.5,
      "hit_rate_pct": 88.9,
      "notes": "Smallest cohort; tightest fit to all 5 Buffett pillars. Highest median return and hit rate of any grade."
    },
    {
      "grade": "A",
      "score_range": "70-84",
      "cohort_size": 64,
      "median_return_1y_pct": 22.1,
      "median_return_3y_pct": 64.8,
      "median_return_5y_pct": 138.7,
      "alpha_5y_pp": 57.9,
      "hit_rate_pct": 79.7,
      "notes": "Strong-fit cohort. Most actionable grade for portfolio construction."
    },
    {
      "grade": "B",
      "score_range": "55-69",
      "cohort_size": 142,
      "median_return_1y_pct": 14.6,
      "median_return_3y_pct": 42.4,
      "median_return_5y_pct": 87.2,
      "alpha_5y_pp": 6.4,
      "hit_rate_pct": 64.1,
      "notes": "Partial-fit cohort. Roughly tracks SPY; the median B-grade tracks the index because the alpha sits in the A and A+ tiers."
    },
    {
      "grade": "C",
      "score_range": "40-54",
      "cohort_size": 196,
      "median_return_1y_pct": 7.8,
      "median_return_3y_pct": 21.3,
      "median_return_5y_pct": 52.4,
      "alpha_5y_pp": -28.4,
      "hit_rate_pct": 48.5,
      "notes": "Weak-fit cohort. Underperforms SPY meaningfully. Signal works in the negative direction too: low grades correlate with poor forward returns."
    },
    {
      "grade": "D",
      "score_range": "0-39",
      "cohort_size": 84,
      "median_return_1y_pct": 1.4,
      "median_return_3y_pct": 6.2,
      "median_return_5y_pct": 14.8,
      "alpha_5y_pp": -66,
      "hit_rate_pct": 31,
      "notes": "Failed-fit cohort. Substantial median underperformance vs SPY. Useful as a 'do not own' signal for portfolio construction."
    }
  ],
  "field_definitions": {
    "grade": "Letter grade assigned at entry timestamp based on Buffett-Fit composite score.",
    "score_range": "Numeric Buffett-Fit Score range mapping to this grade.",
    "cohort_size": "Number of stocks in the cohort at entry. Includes stocks subsequently delisted or merged.",
    "median_return_1y_pct": "Median realised total return over 1 year from entry timestamp.",
    "median_return_3y_pct": "Median realised total return over 3 years from entry timestamp.",
    "median_return_5y_pct": "Median realised total return over 5 years from entry timestamp.",
    "alpha_5y_pp": "Percentage-point outperformance of median cohort return over SPY benchmark over the 5-year window.",
    "hit_rate_pct": "Percentage of cohort members with positive total return over the 5-year window."
  },
  "caveats": [
    "Cohort includes only stocks priced and tracked in the invest-like universe at entry timestamp. Stocks added after the entry cohort was locked are not retroactively included.",
    "Past performance does not guarantee future results.",
    "Median is used as the headline metric to dampen single-stock outlier effects; means are available in the working paper.",
    "Returns are realised total return (price + dividends) not annualised; full annualisation tables in the working paper."
  ],
  "disclaimer": "Educational only, not investment advice. Snapshot dated 2026-05-26."
}