Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 5 Oct 2026
MRNA· Healthcare
Moderna
Moderna's negative margins and low ROIC make it a poor fit for a Buffett-style investment.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
3
Durability
9
Management
77
Price
55
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 5 Oct 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Healthcare stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If we owned 100% of Moderna, the focus would be on navigating the high R&D costs and achieving profitability.
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The 10-year durability of Moderna hinges on its ability to commercialize its pipeline effectively.
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Moderna has managed to reduce its share count slightly with a 5-year CAGR of -0.88%, and a yield of 5.49%.
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The current valuation metrics, such as a of -6.1 and an yield of -10.61%, indicate that Moderna is not currently a candidate for investment under a Buffett framework.
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- The 5-year price target and the return it implies
- What would change the call
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1Strategic alliances with major pharmaceutical companies provide collaboration opportunities.
- 2Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18 indicates conservative .
- 3Current ratio of 2.41 suggests strong liquidity.
- 4 yield of 5.49% shows active share repurchase efforts.
Concerns
7- 1Negative of -37.3% is well below sector top-quintile.
- 2 of -13.9% is significantly below the sector's 77.9% top-quintile cutoff.
- 3 of -153.3% highlights severe profitability issues.
- 4Net margin of -143.6% underscores the lack of profitability.
Price history
$246-24.7%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Moderna, Inc. focuses on developing mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines for a variety of diseases including infectious and cardiovascular diseases. The company has strategic alliances with major pharmaceutical companies and research institutions. Despite its innovative approach, the company currently operates at a loss, with a net margin of -143.6% and a of -13.9%. The unit economics are challenged by high R&D costs and reliance on successful product development.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 3 reviews.
Oct 11, 2026 → Oct 22, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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