Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 29 Oct 2026 · analysis from 27 Jul 2026
ABNB· Consumer Discretionary
Airbnb
Airbnb's high margins and growth potential are overshadowed by inconsistent profitability and a lack of long-term durability.
Buffett fit
Partial fit
Owner
78
Durability
31
Management
64
Price
27
Score updated 29 Oct 2026 · analysis from 27 Jul 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Consumer Discretionary stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If I owned Airbnb, I'd focus on expanding its user base and enhancing the host experience to drive growth.
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The 10-year test reveals weaknesses, particularly with Airbnb not being profitable in five years and having a significant EPS decline.
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Airbnb has a share count CAGR of -0.12%, indicating discipline in with a yield of 2.77%.
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The current of 31.7 and an yield of 5.86% indicate a high valuation, especially considering a target of 8-10% for a .
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- What would change the call
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1 of 82.9% significantly exceeds the sector's top-quintile cutoff of 53.8%.
- 2 of 19.1% ranks in the top quintile of the Consumer Cyclical sector (p80: 13.6%).
- 3 of 20.5% is well above the sector's top-quintile cutoff of 14.9%.
- 4 of $4.65B demonstrates strong cash generation capabilities.
Concerns
5- 1Inconsistent profitability with at least one loss year in the last five, raising durability concerns.
- 2EPS CAGR is missing, indicating a lack of clarity on long-term growth potential.
- 3 of 31.7 is significantly higher than the ideal entry point of 10-12, suggesting overvaluation.
- 4Interest coverage is at 0.0, indicating potential issues with debt servicing in adverse conditions.
Price history
$166-2.7%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Airbnb operates a marketplace that connects hosts with guests, generating revenue primarily through service fees. With $12.24B in revenue, it maintains a of 82.9%, indicating strong unit economics. However, the business has faced profitability challenges, evident in its inconsistent EPS growth.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 6 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 29, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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