Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 26 Sept 2026 · analysis from 27 Jul 2026
ADSK· Technology
Autodesk
Autodesk's high margins and strong ROIC indicate a solid business, but its valuation raises concerns about future returns.
Buffett fit
Strong fit
Owner
75
Durability
98
Management
80
Price
21
Score updated 26 Sept 2026 · analysis from 27 Jul 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Technology stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If I owned Autodesk, I would focus on maintaining its strong customer relationships and innovative product development.
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Autodesk has shown remarkable durability, with consistent profitability over the last five years and no EPS decline.
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Management has effectively reduced share count by -0.77% over the last five years, demonstrating a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
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The current yield of 4.93% is below my target range of 8-10%, indicating a potential overvaluation.
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- The 5-year price target and the return it implies
- What would change the call
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1 of 22% surpasses the sector top-quintile cutoff of 13.4%, indicating strong capital efficiency.
- 2 of 91.1% is well above the sector average of 60.9%, showcasing .
- 3 of 26.6% is significantly higher than the sector's 18.0% top-quintile cutoff.
- 4Consistent profitability with a 5-year EPS CAGR of 23.63% and no EPS decline over the same period.
Concerns
5- 1Valuation is concerning with a of 33.4, which may not be sustainable given the growth rates.
- 2Current ratio of 0.83 suggests potential liquidity issues, as short-term obligations may not be fully covered.
- 3High reliance on software subscriptions could be vulnerable to technological disruption or shifts in customer preferences.
- 4No dividends being paid may deter income-focused investors, leading to potential stock price volatility.
Price history
$245-20.7%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Autodesk generates revenue through its diverse software offerings, including AutoCAD and Fusion 360, which cater to various industries such as construction and manufacturing. With a TTM revenue of $7.21B and a net income of $1.12B, the company has a robust business model driven by subscription services. The unit economics are strong, supported by a of 91.1%.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 5 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 22, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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