Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 21 May 2026
AGNC· Real Estate
AGNC Investment
AGNC's heavy leverage and low ROIC signal a weak moat and questionable long-term durability.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
50
Durability
13
Management
48
Price
44
Score updated 21 May 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Real Estate stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Owning AGNC would be concerning due to its reliance on high , with a debt/equity ratio of 8.59 and net debt/EBITDA of 25.62.
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The long-term durability of AGNC is questionable, as evidenced by a 5-year average of only 2.17% and inconsistent profitability over the past five years.
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AGNC's raises concerns, with a share count CAGR of 13.53% indicating dilution.
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The current of 8.2 suggests a superficially attractive valuation, but the yield of 5.31% does not meet the typical 8-10% threshold for a no-brainer buy.
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
4- 1High of 78.35% indicates efficient operations.
- 2Dividend yield of 13.43% is attractive for income-focused investors.
- 3Net income of $1.67B on $1.91B revenue shows strong profitability in the short term.
- 4 of 120.32% suggests high efficiency in managing operational costs.
Concerns
6- 1 of 2.08% is well below the 15% threshold, indicating poor capital efficiency.
- 2Debt/equity ratio of 8.59 highlights significant risk.
- 3Interest coverage of 1.4 suggests vulnerability to interest rate increases.
- 4Negative market cap vs. retained earnings of -0.34 indicates poor value creation.
Price history
$8.80-46.8%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a mortgage REIT, investing in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. These investments are funded through collateralized borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. The company benefits from a high of 78.35%, but its operating model relies heavily on debt, as shown by a debt/equity ratio of 8.59. The unit economics are challenged by a low of 2.08%.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 3 reviews.
Oct 11, 2026 → Oct 21, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
Keep researching
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