Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 5 Oct 2026 · analysis from 17 Jun 2026
ASTS· Technology
AST SpaceMobile
AST SpaceMobile's negative profitability metrics and lack of a competitive moat signal significant investment risk.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
0
Durability
27
Management
50
Price
55
Score updated 5 Oct 2026 · analysis from 17 Jun 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Technology stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If I owned 100% of AST SpaceMobile, I'd be concerned about the lack of profitability, demonstrated by a net income margin of -573.7%.
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The 10-year test raises red flags, as AST SpaceMobile has not been profitable in any of the last five years, with a maximum EPS decline of -84.48%.
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AST SpaceMobile's has been poor, as evidenced by a market cap decrease of -50.83% relative to retained earnings.
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The current price of $82.25 is unjustified given the negative earnings yield of -1.74% and yield of -2.91%.
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- What would change the call
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1Revenue CAGR of 54.63% over the last five years, indicating potential for growth.
- 2Current ratio of 18.47 shows strong short-term liquidity.
- 3Minimal debt with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.01, providing financial flexibility.
- 4No reliance on credit markets for operations.
Concerns
5- 1Negative of -27.0%, indicating a failure to cover production costs.
- 2 of -440.5%, reflecting severe operational inefficiencies.
- 3 of -30.8% over five years, demonstrating a lack of effective .
- 4Share count increased by 49.15% over five years, diluting existing shareholders.
Price history
$58.45+481.0%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
AST SpaceMobile aims to provide mobile broadband services via a space-based network, targeting users in areas lacking terrestrial connectivity. However, with a TTM revenue of only $70.92M and no net income, the business model struggles to generate sustainable cash flow. The unit economics are currently unproven, given the lack of profitability.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 2 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 4, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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