Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 27 Oct 2026 · analysis from 18 May 2026
CCL· Consumer Discretionary
Carnival Corporation &
Carnival rode the post-pandemic snapback to triple-digit EPS growth, but $30B in debt is the iceberg.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
51
Durability
41
Management
53
Price
60
Score updated 27 Oct 2026 · analysis from 18 May 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Consumer Discretionary stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Owning Carnival privately means writing checks for fuel, maintenance, and refinancing $30B of debt every year while hoping the next pandemic, recession or hurricane stays away.
The full reasoning comes with a free account.
Through 2036, Carnival likely survives, the brand is real and the ships have decades of useful life.
The full reasoning comes with a free account.
Share count grew 4.0% per year over five years to fund pandemic survival, dilution that won't reverse quickly.
The full reasoning comes with a free account.
At 11.0x and 7.6% owner-earnings yield, Carnival looks cheap until you fold in the .
The full reasoning comes with a free account.
Free account
Read the full Carnival Corporation & analysis free
- The full reasoning behind all four pillars
- Graham, Lynch and Greenblatt on the same stock
3 full analyses a week · no card needed
For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1 of 11.0 and yield of 7.6% offer reasonable absolute value
- 2 of 16.9% confirms post-pandemic profitability has returned
- 3TTM of 11.1% versus -4.6% 5-year average shows operational recovery
- 4Largest cruise operator with brand portfolio that's hard to replicate
Concerns
6- 1 of 2.04 is the highest among major travel operators
- 2Net debt/EBITDA of 3.48 leaves little cushion for a demand wobble
- 3Current ratio of 0.27 reflects extreme working-capital intensity
- 4Share count grew 4.0% annually over 5 years to survive pandemic
Price history
$27.74+25.2%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Carnival operates the world's largest cruise fleet across nine brands, taking passengers on roughly 700 ships annually. of 37.5% and of 16.9% reflect a recovered demand backdrop where ships sail full at strong yields. Revenue CAGR of 93% over 5 years is post-pandemic snapback, not steady-state, the comparison base was near zero. The model rests on global vacation demand staying robust while fixed-cost capacity is paid down.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 4 reviews.
Oct 11, 2026 → Oct 27, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
Keep researching
Similar companies in Consumer Discretionary
Free weekly email
Liked the read on CCL? Get the next ones on Monday.
Every Monday: the stocks most of the seven investors newly agree on. One email, unsubscribe any time.
Research, not investment advice.
See the Buffett analysis of Carnival Corporation &
The score, the checklist and the full reasoning open with a free account. You get 3 full analyses a week, and this stock is the first one. No card needed.
Create a free account3 full analyses a week · no card needed
Already have an account? Sign in