Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 27 Oct 2026 · analysis from 21 Sept 2026
FCX· Materials
Freeport-McMoRan
Freeport-McMoRan's valuation multiples imply growth that recent earnings trends don't support.
Buffett fit
Partial fit
Owner
39
Durability
46
Management
64
Price
17
Score updated 27 Oct 2026 · analysis from 21 Sept 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Materials stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Owning 100% of Freeport-McMoRan would mean managing a portfolio of mining assets with exposure to volatile commodity markets.
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The company's durability is challenged by its reliance on commodity prices, which have historically been volatile.
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Management has shown discipline with a share count CAGR of -0.39% and a modest yield of 0.42%.
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The current of 34.7 and yield of 1.18% suggest the market is pricing in substantial growth.
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- The 5-year price target and the return it implies
- What would change the call
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1 of 27.8% is in the top quintile for its sector.
- 2Interest coverage of 17.8 indicates strong ability to service debt.
- 3Net debt/EBITDA of 0.67 reflects a conservative position.
- 4Dividend CAGR of 27.14% over 5 years shows commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Concerns
5- 1 of 34.7 suggests high growth expectations that recent EPS trends do not support.
- 2 yield of 1.18% is well below the 8-10% target for a .
- 35-year EPS CAGR of -14.99% indicates declining earnings power.
- 4 of 9.1% is below the sector's top-quintile cutoff of 12.6%.
Price history
$65.16+72.7%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a mining company primarily engaged in the extraction of copper, gold, molybdenum, and other metals. It operates major assets like the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia and multiple sites in North and South America. The company generated $25.74B in revenue over the past year with a net margin of 10.34%. Unit economics are heavily tied to commodity prices, which introduces volatility.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 6 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 27, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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