Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 20 Oct 2026 · analysis from 18 May 2026
ICE· Financial Services
Intercontinental Exchange
ICE runs irreplaceable exchange and clearing infrastructure at 40.8% operating margins, but a single-year EPS shock and 22x earnings leave the price doing real work.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
67
Durability
72
Management
56
Price
49
Score updated 20 Oct 2026 · analysis from 18 May 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Financial Services stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Holding ICE for a decade means owning the plumbing of US energy markets, mortgage origination, and corporate bond pricing, businesses that exist whether equities are up or down.
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Regulated exchange monopolies and clearing houses don't get disrupted by software, they get extended by it.
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Share count drifted up 0.4% per year as ICE used equity for the Black Knight deal, then resumed .
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At 22.3x earnings and a 4.91% owner yield, ICE prices in continued mid-single-digit growth without any cushion for a mortgage-cycle disappointment.
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
6- 168.98% reflects a near-monopoly clearing and exchange franchise
- 240.84% shows the venue model's operating at scale
- 3/Net Income of 1.30 indicates earnings convert cleanly to cash
- 4Revenue CAGR of 8.4% over 5 years through commodity and rate-cycle volatility
Concerns
5- 1 of 22.3 and owner yield of 4.91% offer no obvious
- 2Single-year EPS decline of 64% (acquisition charge) muddies the durability picture
- 3 of 7.4% TTM is weak for a business of this quality
- 4Net debt/EBITDA of 2.94x sits at the high end of comfortable post-deal
Price history
$159+20.5%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Intercontinental Exchange owns the regulated venues where commodities, fixed income, and mortgage data change hands. The 68.98% and 40.84% are the fingerprints of a venue toll-collector, not a participant in trades. Roughly half of revenue now comes from the data-and-mortgage-technology stack ICE bought through the IDC, Ellie Mae, and Black Knight acquisitions, which is why /NI of 1.30 looks healthier than of 6.36% would suggest. The franchise compounds modestly at 8.4% revenue CAGR rather than spectacularly.
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
Keep researching
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Questions about Intercontinental Exchange
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