Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 5 Oct 2026 · analysis from 14 Aug 2026
IONQ· Technology
IonQ
IonQ's negative ROIC and high valuation metrics indicate significant challenges in profitability and sustainability over the next decade.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
15
Durability
27
Management
30
Price
20
Score updated 5 Oct 2026 · analysis from 14 Aug 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Technology stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If I owned 100% of IonQ, I would be concerned about the return on capital, as the current of -12.7% indicates that the business is not generating value from its investments.
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The 10-year test is troubling for IonQ, given its negative and the fact that it has not been profitable in the last five years.
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IonQ's share count has increased by 9.89% over the last five years, indicating dilution rather than value creation.
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With a of 63.8 and an earnings yield of just 1.57%, the valuation is far from attractive.
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- The 5-year price target and the return it implies
- What would change the call
- Graham, Lynch and Greenblatt on the same stock
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1Net margin of 148.1% is significantly above the sector top-quintile, indicating potential for high profitability if revenue grows.
- 2Current ratio of 14.05 suggests strong short-term liquidity.
- 3Low ratio of 0.01 indicates minimal reliance on leverage.
- 4Access to quantum computing through major cloud platforms like AWS and Azure provides potential market reach.
Concerns
5- 1Negative of -12.7% indicates the business is not generating returns on its investments.
- 2 of -443.3% suggests significant losses relative to revenue.
- 3Revenue CAGR over the past five years is only 1.81%, indicating slow growth potential.
- 4High valuation metrics, such as EV/Sales of 95.75, reflect excessive expectations not supported by current performance.
Price history
$43.77+420.5%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
IonQ develops quantum computing systems and provides access through cloud platforms like AWS and Azure. With a TTM revenue of $130.02 million, the business relies on the growing demand for quantum computing. However, the lack of profitability and negative cash flow raises concerns about its sustainability. The unit economics remain uncertain due to the high capital intensity of the technology.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 3 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 5, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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