Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 21 Sept 2026
NEM· Materials
Newmont
Newmont's top-quintile margins suggest a moat, but inconsistent ROIC and cyclicality raise durability concerns.
Buffett fit
Partial fit
Owner
49
Durability
68
Management
69
Price
82
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 21 Sept 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Materials stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Owning 100% of Newmont would mean capitalizing on its high-margin gold production.
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In the next decade, Newmont's durability hinges on maintaining its cost advantage and navigating commodity price cycles.
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Management's has been mixed. The share count CAGR of 11.7% indicates dilution, while the yield of 0.71% is minimal.
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With a of 13.9 and an EV/ of 8.3, Newmont's valuation appears reasonable, offering an earnings yield of 7.22% and an yield of 7.43%.
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
7- 153.2% is top-quintile in the Basic Materials sector.
- 2 of 48.6% significantly exceeds sector norms.
- 3Interest coverage of 50.5 indicates strong ability to service debt.
- 4Net debt/EBITDA of -0.15 shows a net cash position.
Concerns
7- 15-year average of 7.7% is below the sector top-quintile.
- 2Share count CAGR of 11.7% indicates significant dilution.
- 3Dividend CAGR of -10.93% reflects inconsistent payouts.
- 4At least one unprofitable year in the past five years.
Price history
$117+103.4%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Newmont Corporation primarily generates revenue through gold production, with operations in multiple countries. The company reported $22.67 billion in revenue and a net income of $7.09 billion. Its of 53.2% and of 48.6% are top-quintile within the Basic Materials sector. The unit economics are attractive due to high margins, but cyclical commodity prices impact consistency.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 5 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 22, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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