Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 5 Oct 2026 · analysis from 10 Jun 2026
RIVN· Consumer Discretionary
Rivian Automotive
Rivian's negative margins and poor returns indicate a lack of competitive advantage, making it a risky investment.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
0
Durability
68
Management
18
Price
55
Score updated 5 Oct 2026 · analysis from 10 Jun 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Consumer Discretionary stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If I owned Rivian, I would be concerned about the sustainability of its operations given the current -30.65% and negative margins.
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The 10-year outlook for Rivian is precarious. Specifically, if the company continues to post negative margins and fails to achieve profitability, it risks losing market share to competitors.
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Management has not effectively allocated capital, as evidenced by a share count CAGR of 55.28% and no .
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Given the current price of $15.73, the negative earnings yield of -20.35% suggests that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations that Rivian has not yet delivered.
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1Revenue of $5.39B indicates a solid market presence.
- 2Current ratio of 2.10 suggests good short-term liquidity.
- 3 YoY growth of 12.88% indicates some operational improvement.
- 4The electric vehicle market is expected to grow significantly in the coming years.
Concerns
5- 1 of -30.65% is far below the sector top-quintile cutoff of 12.0%.
- 2 of -1.72% indicates significant cost pressures.
- 3 of -68.94% suggests severe inefficiencies in operations.
- 4Share count has increased by 55.28% over the last 5 years, diluting shareholder value.
Price history
$14.30-89.0%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Rivian designs and sells electric vehicles, including pickup trucks and delivery vans, primarily to consumers and commercial customers. With a revenue of $5.39B, it operates in a rapidly growing market but has not yet achieved profitability. The unit economics remain unfavorable as evidenced by a of -1.72%.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 3 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 5, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
Keep researching
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