Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 29 Oct 2026 · analysis from 7 Sept 2026
SPCX· Industrials
SpaceX
SpaceX's negative ROIC and high valuation make it a speculative bet, not a Buffett-style investment.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
21
Durability
27
Management
93
Price
55
Score updated 29 Oct 2026 · analysis from 7 Sept 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Industrials stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If we owned SpaceX entirely, the focus would be on achieving profitability and improving capital efficiency.
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SpaceX's durability is challenged by its negative and reliance on continuous technological advancement.
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SpaceX has reduced its share count by 4.62% annually over the past five years, indicating some level of capital discipline.
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The current valuation, with a of -306.8 and an earnings yield of -0.33%, offers no .
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 1Revenue CAGR of 34.08% over 5 years indicates strong top-line growth.
- 2 of 49.39% is top-quintile in the industrials sector.
- 3Share count has decreased by 4.62% annually, suggesting capital discipline.
- 4Debt/Equity ratio of 0.56 indicates manageable .
Concerns
5- 1 of -2.85% is below the sector's top-quintile cutoff of 13.6%.
- 2 of -11.05% is significantly below the sector's 17.8% top-quintile cutoff.
- 3Negative net margin of -26.44% indicates ongoing profitability challenges.
- 4Interest coverage of -1.2 suggests an inability to cover interest expenses.
Price history
$145-9.8%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
SpaceX operates in three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. It designs and launches reusable rockets, providing launch services for commercial and government payloads. The company reported $18.67B in revenue but is not profitable, with a net margin of -26.44%. The business model relies heavily on technological innovation and achieving economies of scale in space transportation.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 6 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 29, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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