Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 23 Oct 2026 · analysis from 18 May 2026
UBS· Financial Services
UBS Group
UBS is a Credit Suisse integration project trading at 18x earnings with negative owner yield, too messy for Buffett-style certainty.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
36
Durability
53
Management
27
Price
22
Score updated 23 Oct 2026 · analysis from 18 May 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Financial Services stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Owning UBS for the next decade means betting that Sergio Ermotti completes the Credit Suisse integration cleanly, that no major litigation surprises emerge from the Archegos or 1MDB legacy, and that the wealth franchise reaccelerates after the dislocation.
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Wealth management is a legitimately durable business with sticky AUM and recurring fees, and UBS now has more of it than anyone.
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have actually shrunk the share count 3.2% per year, which is a positive.
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At 18.1x earnings UBS looks reasonable until you see the owner-earnings yield is negative 10.46%, the company has been burning cash through integration.
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 171.9% reflects scale of the world's largest wealth manager
- 2$5.7T invested assets create a from sheer client lock-in
- 3Share count down 3.19% annually, capital returned through
- 4Revenue CAGR of 13.95% benefits from Credit Suisse merger absorption
Concerns
6- 1Owner-earnings yield of -10.46% means the company is burning cash
- 2Interest coverage of just 0.36x, earnings barely cover interest
- 3/Net Income of -2.54 reveals serious working-capital strain
- 4EPS max decline of 81.7% reflects integration shock and prior crises
Price history
$46.87+158.2%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
UBS Group is the world's largest wealth manager by assets after swallowing Credit Suisse in 2023, with $5.7 trillion in invested assets across Global Wealth Management, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management, and Investment Bank divisions. The 71.9% masks an investment-bank cost base that drags the to 15.5%. of 0.46% TTM tells you the Credit Suisse acquisition has not yet earned its keep, integration charges, litigation reserves, and capital absorption are still working through the P&L.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 5 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 23, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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