Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 26 Oct 2026 · analysis from 10 Sept 2026
VST· Utilities
Vistra
Vistra Corp's low ROIC and high leverage make it unattractive despite its scale in the utilities sector.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
1
Durability
14
Management
50
Price
26
Score updated 26 Oct 2026 · analysis from 10 Sept 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Utilities stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Owning 100% of Vistra Corp would be challenging due to its low of 0.8% and high debt/equity ratio of 3.56, which limits financial flexibility.
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Vistra's durability is questionable given its 5-year EPS CAGR of -0.19% and a history of unprofitable years.
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Vistra's appears mixed. Despite a decrease in share count, the company's market cap increase doesn't align with retained earnings, suggesting inefficient capital use.
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Vistra's current of 21.1 and an yield of 0.28% suggest an overvaluation, especially with an EV/ of 49.5.
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- The 5-year price target and the return it implies
- What would change the call
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
4- 1Net margin of 13.8% exceeds the sector top-quintile cutoff of 18.3%.
- 2Share count has decreased by 8.38% annually over the last five years.
- 3Serves a large customer base of 4.3 million across 20 states.
- 4Generation capacity of 38,700 megawatts includes diverse energy sources.
Concerns
6- 1 of 0.8% is well below the sector top-quintile cutoff of 7.7%.
- 2High debt/equity ratio of 3.56 indicates significant .
- 3Interest coverage of 0.3 suggests difficulty in servicing debt.
- 4Negative growth of 94.81% raises sustainability concerns.
Price history
$140+615.5%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Vistra Corp operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company, serving over 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts. It operates through six segments, including Retail and Asset Closure. The company's revenue is generated from retail electricity and natural gas sales, as well as electricity generation. However, the of 2.1% and net margin of 13.8% indicate significant margin pressure in this capital-intensive industry.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 6 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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