Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 1 Jun 2026
XOM· Energy
Exxon Mobil
Exxon is a fortress balance sheet strapped to a commodity price it cannot control, and at 24 times earnings the market is paying up for a barrel of oil.
Buffett fit
Partial fit
Owner
29
Durability
60
Management
76
Price
36
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 1 Jun 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Energy stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If I owned all of Exxon, I would wake up each morning a price-taker, hostage to a number printed in a faraway market.
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The world will burn hydrocarbons for a long while yet, so Exxon will not vanish, and a durability mark of 60 is fair.
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Here management earns its 76. The balance sheet is conservative, with of just 0.19, net debt only 0.65 times EBITDA, and interest covered a towering 42 times.
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There is none, and that is the heart of the no. At 24 times earnings the owner-earnings yield is only 3.85 percent and the plain earnings yield 4.09 percent, while EV to sits near 19.
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
7- 1Fortress balance sheet: of just 0.19 and net debt only 0.65 times EBITDA.
- 2Interest is covered roughly 42 times over, so a downturn will not threaten solvency.
- 3 converts at 82 percent of net income, a sign earnings are backed by real cash.
- 4Disciplined share count, up only 0.33 percent a year, so owners are not being quietly diluted.
Concerns
7- 1Valuation leaves no : 24 times earnings and only a 3.85 percent owner-earnings yield for a cyclical.
- 2EV to near 19 is a rich price to pay for a business whose profits ride the oil price.
- 3Trailing return on capital has collapsed to 5.46 percent, far below the 13.9 percent five-year mark.
- 4No real , scored 29: Exxon is a price-taker with weak over its own product.
Price history
$178+182.1%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Exxon pumps, refines, and sells oil, gas, and chemicals, and the price of those barrels is set by the world, not by Exxon. The economics show it plainly: a 25.5 percent thins to a 9 percent , so a quarter of every sales dollar survives the wellhead but only a dime makes it past the cost of running the business. Revenue has grown about 4 percent a year and earnings about 5.4 percent, which is the slow, lumpy growth of a business tied to a cycle it does not author.
How this analysis has moved
The call has held across 5 reviews.
Sep 27, 2026 → Oct 22, 2026
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
Keep researching
Similar companies in Energy
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