Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 25 May 2026
PGR· Financial Services
The Progressive
Progressive's 17.7% 5-year average ROIC sits in the top quintile for financial services, but its moat is less clear.
Buffett fit
Partial fit
Owner
45
Durability
70
Management
66
Price
46
Score updated 22 Oct 2026 · analysis from 25 May 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Financial Services stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
Owning 100% of Progressive would involve focusing on maintaining its top-quintile of 17.7% and leveraging its strong balance sheet with a Debt/Equity of 0.26.
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Progressive has shown durability with profitability in each of the last 5 years and a revenue CAGR of 16.44%.
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Progressive has maintained a steady share count with a 5-year CAGR of 0.08%, indicating disciplined capital management.
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The current of 10.1 and an yield of 14.74% suggest a reasonable valuation.
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
8- 1 (TTM) of 34.6% is top-quintile in the sector.
- 25-year average of 17.7% indicates consistent capital efficiency.
- 3Earnings yield of 9.88% offers a good return at the current price.
- 4 yield of 14.74% suggests strong cash generation.
Concerns
8- 1 of 28.4% is below the sector's top quintile.
- 2 of 16.3% is lower than the sector's top performers.
- 3EPS max decline of 79.09% over 5 years indicates potential volatility.
- 4Current ratio of 0.25 suggests low short-term liquidity.
Price history
$221+131.5%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
Progressive Corporation provides a range of insurance products, including auto, commercial, and property insurance, primarily in the U.S. The Personal Lines segment is the largest, covering personal autos and recreational vehicles. The company has a strong revenue base of $87.64B with a net income of $11.31B. Its of 16.3% is below the sector's top quintile but supported by a robust of 34.6%. The unit economics are favorable, with /Net Income at 1.52, indicating high earnings quality.
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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