PGR
Is The Progressive (PGR) undervalued?
Based on the Buffett-Fit framework, The Progressive (PGR) currently scores 64/100. Valuation is one of the five pillars that drives that score, the stock trades at a P/E of 11.2x, with an owner-earnings yield of 13.6%. Whether PGR is undervalued depends on the gap between price and a conservative estimate of intrinsic value, broken down below. Educational only, not investment advice.
Headline multiples. The Progressive trades at a trailing P/E of 11.2x, a P/B of 4.18x, and an EV-to-EBIT of 9.2x. None of these in isolation tells you whether the stock is undervalued: a 30x P/E is cheap for a quality compounder and expensive for a cyclical commodity producer. The point is the relationship between price and the underlying business quality on the same scale.
Owner-earnings yield. The Progressive's owner-earnings yield (free cash flow / enterprise value) currently sits at 13.6%. This is Buffett's preferred valuation lens because it asks "what does the business actually return to a 100% owner?" rather than accounting earnings that can be inflated by accruals. A yield above the 10-year Treasury plus a 4-5% equity-risk premium is the rough benchmark for "cheap" against a high-quality business.
Earnings yield (1/P/E). The inverted P/E gives an earnings yield of 8.9%, useful as a sanity-check against the owner-earnings yield above. Large gaps between the two usually mean either high stock-based compensation eroding cash earnings (yield gap negative) or aggressive working-capital management inflating cash earnings vs accounting earnings (yield gap positive).
What the framework concludes. Valuation alone doesn't decide whether PGR is a buy, Buffett's full rule is "a wonderful business at a fair price beats a fair business at a wonderful price." The valuation sub-score in the Buffett-Fit verdict on this page combines the metrics above with the company's underlying compounding rate (ROIC × reinvestment) to produce a single 0-100 number. Read the full verdict to see how it sits alongside moat strength, durability, management, and financial health.
How invest-like measures this
Valuation on invest-like.com is graded against three benchmarks: the owner-earnings yield (Buffett's preferred metric, free cash flow divided by enterprise value), the multiple of intrinsic value (DCF and reverse-DCF), and the price relative to the company's underlying compounding rate.
The score weighs these against the sector's median quality benchmarks: a 20x P/E is cheap for a software compounder and expensive for a cyclical commodity producer, so the sector-relative bonus matters. Educational only, not investment advice.
This is educational analysis based on investing frameworks. It is not investment advice or a recommendation, and it does not know your situation. Do your own research before you decide.
