NOG
Is Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) undervalued?
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) currently trades at a P/E of -3.7x with an owner-earnings yield of 10.1%. The Buffett-Fit valuation pillar, owner-earnings yield, intrinsic-value multiple, and the company's underlying compounding rate, is the framework used on this page to grade undervaluation. Educational only, not investment advice.
Headline multiples. Northern Oil and Gas trades at a trailing P/E of -3.7x, a P/B of 1.30x, and an EV-to-EBIT of 8.2x. None of these in isolation tells you whether the stock is undervalued: a 30x P/E is cheap for a quality compounder and expensive for a cyclical commodity producer. The point is the relationship between price and the underlying business quality on the same scale.
Owner-earnings yield. Northern Oil and Gas's owner-earnings yield (free cash flow / enterprise value) currently sits at 10.1%. This is Buffett's preferred valuation lens because it asks "what does the business actually return to a 100% owner?" rather than accounting earnings that can be inflated by accruals. A yield above the 10-year Treasury plus a 4-5% equity-risk premium is the rough benchmark for "cheap" against a high-quality business.
Earnings yield (1/P/E). The inverted P/E gives an earnings yield of -26.8%, useful as a sanity-check against the owner-earnings yield above. Large gaps between the two usually mean either high stock-based compensation eroding cash earnings (yield gap negative) or aggressive working-capital management inflating cash earnings vs accounting earnings (yield gap positive).
What the framework concludes. Valuation alone doesn't decide whether NOG is a buy, Buffett's full rule is "a wonderful business at a fair price beats a fair business at a wonderful price." The valuation sub-score in the Buffett-Fit verdict on this page combines the metrics above with the company's underlying compounding rate (ROIC × reinvestment) to produce a single 0-100 number. Read the full verdict to see how it sits alongside moat strength, durability, management, and financial health.
How invest-like measures this
Valuation on invest-like.com is graded against three benchmarks: the owner-earnings yield (Buffett's preferred metric, free cash flow divided by enterprise value), the multiple of intrinsic value (DCF and reverse-DCF), and the price relative to the company's underlying compounding rate.
The score weighs these against the sector's median quality benchmarks: a 20x P/E is cheap for a software compounder and expensive for a cyclical commodity producer, so the sector-relative bonus matters. Educational only, not investment advice.
This is educational analysis based on investing frameworks. It is not investment advice or a recommendation, and it does not know your situation. Do your own research before you decide.
