Buffett Brain · Research note
Score updated 29 Oct 2026 · analysis from 27 Jul 2026
FDX· Industrials
FedEx
FedEx's low ROIC of 7.7% and shrinking revenue raise serious questions about its long-term viability.
Buffett fit
Weak fit
Owner
13
Durability
74
Management
61
Price
48
Score updated 29 Oct 2026 · analysis from 27 Jul 2026
Buffett's checklist
Each number against Buffett's bar, and where it ranks among Industrials stocks in our database.
How much profit the business makes on each dollar invested in it. Higher is better.
What is left of each sale after the cost of making the product. A high number often means pricing power.
The cash the business earns for its owners, compared with the price of the whole company.
How fast sales grew each year over the last five years.
How many years of today's profit you pay for at today's price. Lower means cheaper.
How much the company owes compared with what it owns outright. Lower is safer.
The four pillars
How the business measures up on each of Buffett's four tests.
If I owned FedEx outright, I'd be concerned about its ability to generate consistent returns.
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FedEx's durability is questionable, particularly with a 5-year revenue CAGR of -2.03%.
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In the last five years, FedEx has reduced its share count by 3.03%, indicating some commitment to , but the buyback yield of 1.89% and a dividend CAGR of 18.2% suggest a lack of substantial reinvestment in growth.
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With an yield of 3.92% and a of 18.6, the valuation does not provide a sufficient .
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- The full reasoning behind all four pillars
- The 5-year price target and the return it implies
- What would change the call
- Graham, Lynch and Greenblatt on the same stock
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For and against
The strongest points on each side, with the numbers behind them.
In its favor
5- 15-year EPS CAGR of 5.46% indicates some earnings growth.
- 2All five years profitable, showing consistent operational capability.
- 3Share count decreased by 3.03% over the last five years.
- 4Dividend CAGR of 18.2% reflects commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Concerns
5- 1 of 7.7% is below the sector top-quintile cutoff of 13.6%, indicating weak capital efficiency.
- 2 of 21.6% significantly lags the sector's top-quintile at 43.4%.
- 3 of 6.8% is below the sector top-quintile cutoff of 17.8%.
- 4Revenue CAGR of -2.03% raises questions about future growth prospects.
Price history
$308+26.8%· 5-year return
Weekly closing prices. Touch or hover the line for a date.
The business
How the business works
FedEx provides integrated freight and logistics services, generating $87.93 billion in TTM revenue. However, its of 21.6% is significantly below the sector's top-quintile cutoff of 43.4%. The company's cash flow is primarily driven by transportation and e-commerce solutions, but the unit economics are strained by high competition and low .
What other investors would say
The same company, judged by three other documented playbooks.
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