FERG
Le dividende de Ferguson plc (FERG) est-il sûr ?
Ferguson plc (FERG) currently pays a dividend yield of 1.9% with an FCF payout ratio of 52.4%. Dividend safety isn't about the yield - high yields often signal stress - it's about whether free cash flow comfortably covers the payment. The full coverage analysis is below. Educational only, not investment advice.
FCF payout coverage. Ferguson plc's free-cash-flow payout ratio is 52.4%. Below 60% is comfortable - the business is keeping at least 40% of cash for reinvestment, debt reduction, or buybacks. Between 60-90% is workable but tighter; above 90% leaves no buffer, which is where dividend cuts become a real risk during a downturn.
Earnings vs FCF. The traditional payout ratio (dividends / earnings) sits at 24.5%. Compared against the FCF payout ratio above, large gaps indicate one of two things: accounting earnings being inflated by non-cash items (FCF payout much higher than earnings payout - red flag) or aggressive cash management lifting near-term FCF (FCF payout much lower than earnings payout - sometimes a sign of working-capital releases that won't repeat).
Growth track record. Ferguson plc's 5-year dividend CAGR is -8.6%. Consistent growth across at least one downturn is the gold standard - it means management treats the dividend as a commitment, not a discretionary outflow. A 5-year track record without a cut during the last recession is much stronger evidence than a high current yield.
How invest-like measures this
La sécurité du dividende n'est pas le rendement - un rendement élevé signale souvent du stress. C'est la couverture : le free cash-flow couvre-t-il confortablement le dividende avec de la marge ? Le score de sécurité du dividende invest-like pondère trois signaux : ratio de distribution FCF (sous 60% est confortable ; au-dessus de 90% est fragile), ratio de distribution des bénéfices (moins fiable que le FCF parce que les écritures comptables peuvent masquer les déficits de trésorerie), et historique de croissance du dividende (CAGR 5 ans constant vs coupes lors du dernier ralentissement).
Éducatif uniquement - même un dividende noté A peut être coupé demain par une seule décision du conseil. Nous mesurons la capacité financière documentée à maintenir le versement, pas une prédiction de l'intention du management.
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Analyse de cadre éducative uniquement. Ce n'est pas un conseil en investissement, ni une recommandation, ni personnalisé à ta situation. Fais toujours tes propres recherches.