TOL
Ist die Dividende von Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) sicher?
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) currently pays a dividend yield of 0.8% with an FCF payout ratio of 9.3%. Dividend safety isn't about the yield - high yields often signal stress - it's about whether free cash flow comfortably covers the payment. The full coverage analysis is below. Educational only, not investment advice.
FCF payout coverage. Toll Brothers, Inc.'s free-cash-flow payout ratio is 9.3%. Below 60% is comfortable - the business is keeping at least 40% of cash for reinvestment, debt reduction, or buybacks. Between 60-90% is workable but tighter; above 90% leaves no buffer, which is where dividend cuts become a real risk during a downturn.
Earnings vs FCF. The traditional payout ratio (dividends / earnings) sits at 7.1%. Compared against the FCF payout ratio above, large gaps indicate one of two things: accounting earnings being inflated by non-cash items (FCF payout much higher than earnings payout - red flag) or aggressive cash management lifting near-term FCF (FCF payout much lower than earnings payout - sometimes a sign of working-capital releases that won't repeat).
Growth track record. Toll Brothers, Inc.'s 5-year dividend CAGR is -3.8%. Consistent growth across at least one downturn is the gold standard - it means management treats the dividend as a commitment, not a discretionary outflow. A 5-year track record without a cut during the last recession is much stronger evidence than a high current yield.
How invest-like measures this
Dividendensicherheit ist nicht die Höhe der Rendite - eine hohe Rendite signalisiert oft Stress. Es geht um Deckung: deckt der Free Cashflow die Dividende bequem mit Spielraum? Der invest-like-Dividenden-Sicherheits-Score gewichtet drei Signale: FCF-Ausschüttungsquote (unter 60% ist komfortabel; über 90% ist fragil), Gewinn-Ausschüttungsquote (weniger zuverlässig als FCF, weil Periodenabgrenzungen Cash-Defizite verschleiern können) und Dividenden-Wachstumshistorie (konstantes 5-Jahres-CAGR vs. Kürzungen im letzten Abschwung).
Nur Bildung - selbst eine A-bewertete Dividende kann morgen durch eine einzelne Vorstandsentscheidung gekürzt werden. Wir messen die dokumentierte finanzielle Fähigkeit, die Auszahlung aufrechtzuerhalten, keine Vorhersage von Management-Absichten.
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